Edward Azar`s theory of protracted social conflict : the case of Yemen after 1990

Abstract

The study investigates the causes of protracted conflicts in Yemen since the unification of the two Yemeni Republics in 1990 in relation to Edward Azar’s theory of Protracted Social Conflict. The study verifies Azar’s genesis factors of the protracted social conflict, namely a) communal content, b) human needs, c) governance and the state’s role and d) international linkages and if they correlate with the protracted conflicts in Yemen after 1990. It also investigates if there are additional causes too. Irrespective of the fact that causes of conflicts in Yemen have been thoroughly discussed in literature, this study is the first of its type which provides a theoretical basis for an in-depth analysis of root-causes of protracted conflicts in Yemen since unification until today. Open-ended questionnaires were distributed to ten informants who were selected through a purposive/judgment sampling. Another eight mass media messages were selected through the same purposive/judgment sampling. This method of sampling was selected because of two reasons; 1) to obtain quality feedback, especially with the difficulty of accessing a wider range of experts due to war circumstances in Yemen and 2) to select relevant mass media messages that validate the theory of Azar, especially as the study is qualitative rather than quantitative. The study proposed two research questions: RQ1: 1.Why do conflicts keep conflagrating in Yemen since the unification of the two Yemeni Republics in 1990? RQ2: How well do Edward Azar’s genesis variables of Protracted Social Conflict theory: a) communal content, b) human needs, c) governance and the state’s role and d) international linkages, correlate with the protracted social conflicts in Yemen, especially since the 1990 unification? The findings of the study affirm that the genesis factors of Azar’s theory of Protracted Social Conflict strongly prevail as the main causes for the protracted social conflicts in Yemen since 1990.Governance and the state’s role is the most prevailing cause, both human needs and international linkages come second and then communal content as third. The study reveals new causes of the protracted social conflict in Yemen since 1990 which are not mentioned in the literature. The partisanship and party politics in Yemen, which were enhanced by the sudden application of political pluralism in Yemen after 1990, is one of the new causes revealed by this study. The American strategy of ‘War on Terror’ has played a major role in creating additional militant groups in Yemen other than AQAP and has also led to a nation-wide political unrest. Furthermore, the continuous involvement of regional countries including Saudi Arabia in Yemen’s internal affairs is one of the causes for escalating conflicts in Yemen since 1990. The study suggests the need for further studies to verify and quantify the findings of this study.