Election and voting intention: Determinants and Implication

Abstract

This research devised a model premised on the theory of reasoned action, investigating the quagmire surrounding voters' tendency for party realignment within the Malaysian political context. The study acknowledged the complex political psychology and its colossal impact on Malaysian voting behaviour, which led to an evident shift in the Malaysian political landscape. This shift, embodied in the cyclic party realignment phenomenon, greatly influences electoral choices and voting intentions. A methodology was designed along quantitative lines, using a proportionately stratified sampling method to explain the phenomenon. The study employed multivariate analysis techniques to scrutinise the nexus between five critical determinants: attitude, social media influence, ethnicity, religiosity, and the candidate's image, which drive the public's intention to switch political allegiances during elections, while descriptive analysis is used to highlight demographic statistics and portray a comprehensive psychological snapshot of voter behaviour concerning politics. All five determinants were operationalised based on Batang Kali's area data, featuring a racial demographic composition of 5:1:1 to elucidate party realignment complexities within the local multiracial society. The data was collected through a proportion-stratified sampling method, surveying about 450 Malay/Bumiputra, Chinese, and Indian respondents within Batang Kali State's constituency. The result shows that six of the seventeen hypotheses were significant, but eleven showed no substantial effect on social norms' role in shaping voting intention. Interestingly, voters' attitudes and candidate images explained more variations in voting intentions than other social norms could. The research birthed a novel Party Realignment Proclivity Model (PRP Model), spotlighting the significance of personal-centric attitude and candidate image in predicting voting intention and overshadowing social pressures like ethnic identity, religiousity and social media within a pluralistic Malaysian society.